The answer will vary from person to person. The amount of weight one must lose to go down one pant size will vary because you cannot "spot" reduce, and everyone is different (not everyone carries their fat in the same places and same proportions). When you lose weight, it comes off from all over your body, and how much comes off in the abdominal area, or one's rear end, or thighs, etc, will be different. One pound equals 3500 calories, so if you cut back on your intake and increase your activity just a little, you can achieve a safe, consistent weight loss of about 1-2 pounds per week.
But if you have any type of family history or health concerns, or have not engaged in some type of supervised exercise program recently, I recommend that you contact your physician before you begin. Good luck!
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To lose enough weight so that you can wear the next size jeans going by English dress sizes is about a stone (14lbs),a stone is roughly a dress size.I know that in America the dress sizes are very different to ours in England though and the maths will be different.