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# What are the odds of pitching a perfect game?

Updated: 9/27/2023

Wiki User

14y ago

According to Baseball Reference, through August 30, 2008 there have been 386,916 MLB games played (this number includes games played in the National Association, the first major league which was in existence from 1871-1875). There have been 257 no hitters of nine innings or more thrown in MLB history. This averages out to one no hitter every 1505.5 games.

Interestingly, on 32 occasions, two or more no hitters have been thrown within 10 days of each other. And on two occasions (April 22, 1898 and June 29, 1990) two no hitters were thrown on the same day.

Not being a statistical major, I can't really tell you the odds of pitching a no hitter. But, looking at the list of ho hitters pitched, the odds are about 1 in 8 that a second no hitter will be pitched within 10 days of a no hitter.

Click on the 'MLB No Hitters' link below to see a list of all no hitters thrown in MLB history.

Wiki User

12y ago

Wiki User

7y ago

Well, you can get anywhere from no pins to ten pins each time you throw the ball. But you also have to factor in the fact that there are only 10 pins per frame, and once you get a strike, the frame ends, so assuming that Bowling is solely based on odds or percentages (not on skill like it is in real life)... 1/11(0-10 pins knocked down) ^12 (9 regular frames, 3 throws the tenth frame) = 1/3138428376721 chance

Wiki User

14y ago

Obviously, we can never get the exact odds of a pitcher pitching a perfect game. However, we can use scenarios to determine the odds of pitching a perfect game for that situation. For example, the game is taking place at 7:00 P.M at the pitcher's home stadium. The pitcher's odds of letting a man on base or committing an error each at-bat during a 27 out period is .300. The pitcher's team is guaranteed to score a run. (This is never the case, but were assuming.) The weather is perfect. The pitcher's odds of pitching a perfect game would be, according to my calculations, 0.0065712362363534280139543%.

Obviously, this is only one situation. Many perfect games are much more likely to be pitched by better pitchers. I did the best I could just to give you a good idea of the odds of pitchers pitching perfect games. Now you try doing the math to see why they are so rare.

Wiki User

14y ago

9+ innings are in a perfect game. There are combined perfect games where the bullpen and the starter combine for a perfect game, there is also the starter going through 9 for a perfect game which is what normally happens

Wiki User

16y ago

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Wiki User

13y ago

27

Anonymous

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4y ago

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Q: What are the odds of pitching a perfect game?
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