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This is not a direct answer to the question, but an analysis of the 2008 Presidential Election returns by state (source New York Times and CNN), compared to the percentage of adults over 24 years old with Bachelors Degrees (source Annual Social and Economic Supplement to the 2003 Current Population Survey) suggests that Democrats have changed from those with lower education to those with higher education: 24% of those over 24 years old in the states that voted for McCain had bachelor's degrees and 29% had bachelors degrees in the states that voted for Obama (a highly significant statistical difference by the Chi Square test). The median rank on the bachelors degree scale of the states that voted for McCain was 35 and the median rank for Obama was 16. A linear regression of the percent with bachelors degrees within a state correlated with the percent voting for Obama was also highly signficant statistically with every 1% increase in the percentage of those with bachelors degrees predicting a 1.3% increase in percentage of votes for Obama. Variation in college education alone statistically accounted for 43% of the variation on percentage of votes for Obama vs McCain (Rsquared=.426).

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16y ago

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