There is no definitive answer. Most teens will abuse alcohol at some point in time but very few will become dependent; they "mature out" of abuse, especially as they assume the responsibilities of adult roles.
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The time it takes for a teen to become alcohol dependent can vary greatly among individuals. Factors such as genetics, family history of Alcoholism, social environment, and mental health can all play a role in the development of alcohol dependence. Generally, excessive and regular alcohol consumption during the teenage years can increase the risk of developing alcohol dependence over time.