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Many have done so in the past, many will in the future. Any large earthquake in the Pacific will probably generate one that reaches San Francisco. However obviously none since the city was established has produced large enough waves to do damage, because the further away the earthquake the more the wave attenuates. The 1964 Anchorage, AK earthquake produced waves at San Francisco 2 to 3 feet tall. The 2011 Japanese earthquake produced waves at San Francisco under a foot tall.

If you wanted a numerical answer, that is likely impossible to give as it depends on too many unknown variables.

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