There is no key. The chest is just a distraction.
There is no key, and the chest is never opened. Go to the painting upstairs.
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There is no key. Go upstairs to find the painting.
Whatever it is, no one will ever know. There is no key. The painting is hidden upstairs.
You can't find the key. Eventually it will just be given to you in the course of the game.
The key card is dropped at the end of the scooter chase. It is used much later in the game.
The Black Widow key card is dropped by the art thief (shady guy) when he makes his escape by boat.