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1 in 8,192 exactly.

and that means for ever Pokemon it's 1in 8,192 chance. so on your 8,191, the next one will still be 1 in 8,192.

and btw, 1 in 8,192 is the chance of finding a shiny for all Pokemon games with shiny Pokemon

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Q: What are the chances of finding a shiny Pokemon fire red?
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