I do not know it but you can get it by trading your Pikachu from Generation 1 (Yellow). It is sure to have a Light Ball. My estimation is 5% by using 'Thief' on wild Pikachus.
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pikachu with light ball is better
First, u find a pikachu that has the item, "Light Ball", which is very hard to find, but eventually u will. (or if u have hgss, red's pikachu is holding a light ball. You can use thief or trick to take it from him) Then find a girl Pikachu and someone who can breed with it. Have the male hold the Light Ball and when the baby Pichu hatches it will have Volt Tackle. Hope this helps!
i have pokemon emerald and when i caught a wild pikachu in the safari zone it was holding a light ball and i breeded with a ditto and got a pichu with volt tackle so just catch a pikachu and keep trying ultil it is holding one
There is only one sure-fire way to evolve a pikachu into raichu. The way to do it is by using a thunderstone on Pikachu. If you breed pikachu while it is holding a light ball, you can even get a Pichu.
The Light Ball won't work on a Raichu, since it only doubles the Sp. Atk of a Pikachu.