Will Obama be president in 2012?

Answer 1

According to trading at Intrade (a world-wide prediction market), President Obama has a very good chance. As of mid September 2012, President Obama is listed with a 64.9%likelihood to win the 2012 election and that trend is going up daily. They have his opponent, Governor Romney, at 35.1%likelihood with a continuing down trend.

Note:

The Intrade site (link is in related links section below) is the world's leading stock-trading-style market (called a "decision market" or "prediction market") which attempts to "trade" the likelihood of various people being the next president, in the same way people trade stocks. While certainly not a guarantee, it's a good way to see how people who actually bet money on an outcome (instead of just answering a random poll) predict who the next President will be.

With Intrade, these numbers don't necessarily have to add up to 100%, the numbers are based upon active "betting" with investment on one or the other to win the election. Many believe this is a better and more accurate way to determine what people are willing to put their money down for, as opposed to getting the numbers from polling opinions.