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What is the role of statistics in food epidemiology?

Updated: 8/16/2019
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BACKGROUND The role of statistics in food epidemiology provides a method to follow and interpret trends in a given population for a given source. Data is collected from a specific group in a specific environment to numerically quantify and graphically illustrate the study of a given population while permitting anonymity for those who prefer. Typically, trends are often observed through graphs. Data may be plotted on an x y axis and a line/curve is drawn between the points to average test results. Depending on the complexity of the study, z + may also be included. Once data has been acquired, mathematical modeling can assist in predicting velocity for food borne outbreaks. When points scatter outside the trend it is considered an outlier and may or may not be used as an indicator for further investigative studies. A statistical analysis may take the following factors into consideration: ENVIRONMENT 1. weather (cross pollination via wind; alterations in pH via rain, ...........) 2. terrain (mineral composition and oxygen flow affects pH; mountains or rivers may prevent interbreeding of species....) 3. native organisms: invasive vs symbiotic; insects, fungus, restless kids, etc.. 4. native species: possible source of nourishment for crops and animals 5. hydroponics vs soil vs container method vs dry farm vs field vs greenhouse vs..... 6. irrigation: artesian well vs public or private reservoir/canal vs null source vs .... 7. fertilization : organic or inorganic, regional vs imported, force fed vs....... 8. sterilization techniques of slaughterhouse and laboratories 9. processing: sorting and packaging facilities and their employees 10. storage and final delivery to consumer. 11..... GENETICS 1. origin of seed, roots, cutting, graft..... 2. Genetically Modified Organism (GMO) or Genetically Engineered Organism (GEO)? 3. in vitro or in vivo? 4. social environment: organism raised stress free? free range/caged? ..... 5. general health (bovine): breast fed or prefab transfer of immunological components? 6. immunization: antibiotics/vaccines; sensitization/desensitization 7. tendency for invasion of vectors (mosquitos?) 8.... FICTIONAL EXAMPLE A neighborhood of busy folks prefer to spend their leisure time relaxing rather than doing dishes (saves water too!) In the area, there happens to be only one place that offers vegetarian takeout. The most popular item on the menu is a beautiful side order of partially blossomed broccoli, made to order, ingredients produced locally. For the longest time, everyone is happy because the food tastes great, the price is right and the rich, cold pressed oil acts to satiate the appetite so one feels full after consumption. An initial cohort study for this local population produces no remarkable results. Time passes by, quality remains up to par, and a review is conducted. The only condition that changes is time. No notable differences from the original study. Soon word spreads, and the demand for this side dish skyrockets. Owner purchases the surplus of to go boxes from a neighboring restaurant. The chef hires additional staff and their local farm vendor now has to keep up... The restaurant begins ordering from another source. Chef is overworked and starts to grant greater responsibility to apprentice. The kitchen may forget to soap up one day, the host may "accidentally" sneeze on an irate guest's order and a bright fluorescent green worm may find its way home. Another assistant is hired. Mysterious epidermal lesions occasionally appear on his hand and he sometimes forgets to wear gloves while chopping broccoli. He travels often. A final study is conducted and intriguing outliers emerge due to: 1. development of food Allergies from repetitive consumption of dish 2. food poisoning from possible bacterial infection due to improper food handling 3. emission of toxic gases from reheating using inappropriate containers 4. irregular eating habits, including meal replacement and non-traditional food pairing 5. ........ The owner is notified of the results, quality is resumed, customers are happy and the stat team is awarded further funding to continue to explore the most interesting outlier...

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